Ohio's Cloudy Future: The Decline of the "Big Eight" and the Buckeye State


Sean Posey I Urban Issues I Analysis I August 22nd, 2013



The 2010 Census produced mixed results for America's "legacy cities," that is deindustrialized cities located primarily, but not exclusively, in the Midwest and in the Mid-Atlantic states. While east coast cities like Newark and Philadelphia actually posted population gains, Midwestern Rust Belt cities generally continued their long slide down in terms of population growth. This proved especially true in the state of Ohio, formerly a key manufacturing hub and once arguably the heartland of Industrial North America. For not only have Ohio's major cities continued to shrink, their population loss actually ACCELERATED from 2000 to 2010. The same largely holds true for the shrinking counties that are home to Ohio's seven withering major cities.

All of this leads to a central question: How long will it be before Ohio itself loses population? Much is at stake. Not just tax bases, representation in the house, and federal funding, but national relevance. With the decline of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, Ohio's internal decay is even more of a pressing issue.

The state has been traditionally known for its "Big Eight" cities: Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron, Dayton, Canton, and Youngstown. All of these cities, save the capital city of Columbus, owe their existence to the explosion in manufacturing in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Cleveland was an early leader in automotive production before diversifying into other manufacturing sectors as the twentieth century wore on. Youngstown was a steel center, known as "America's Ruhr Valley." Dayton's manufacturing muscle grew on, among other things, automobiles, foundries, and printing plants. Toledo was also known for auto manufacturing and the glass industry.

Suburbanization in the post-war era and deindustrialization hit Ohio's cities as hard as any in the nation. From the early 1970s to the mid 1980s, Ohio's manufacturing employment dropped by nearly 20 percent. Simultaneously, Ohio's metropolitan areas decentralized. Seven of the Big Eight began to crumble, albeit at various speeds. The deterioration in the economic and social fortunes of Ohio's cities through the 1980s has been well covered in a variety of venues. What has been less mentioned is that, unlike east coast legacy cities, the decline of Ohio's major cities accelerated from 2000 to 2010. And according to 2012 U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the decline continues.

Figure one is a comparison of the change in population for seven of Ohio's Big Eight from the 2000 to 2010 census.

Figure 1

Every one of these cities experienced a larger decline in 2010 than they did in 2000. Cleveland's collapse is particularly shocking, as are Dayton and Youngstown's double-digit losses. Even Akron, somewhat of a success story, experienced a surprising drop in 2010. After seeing a substantial improvement in its population numbers in 2000, the city registered its largest population decline since 1980 in the year 2010. The 2012 census estimates look equally dismal: Only one out of 15 Ohio cities with a population of over 50,000 managed not to lose residents. Two of Ohio's cities (Cleveland and Youngstown) were among the seven fastest shrinking cities in the entire nation during that period. Youngstown was the country's fastest shrinking city. [i]

Counties containing a major shrinking city are on a similar path of continued contraction. With the exception of Stark and Summit in 2000, accelerated population loss has become the norm, as figure two below shows.

Figure 2

(Chart shows negative population loss. Negative numbers are positive)

Lucas County, Mahoning, and Cuyahoga experienced large decreases in the period from 2000 to 2010. Cuyahoga, home to the second largest city in the state, is the fastest shrinking county in the state. Mahoning County in particular faces a troubled future. Between the middle of 2008 and the middle of 2009, Mahoning had more deaths than births. This is termed "negative natural increase." Once a county experiences a cycle of negative natural increase, it is likely to re-enter the cycle again at some point.[ii]

The population decrease of the state's major cities and counties is almost certainly a prelude to state population loss; a major sign is the disappearance of young people, a problem especially centered in counties housing the state's largest cities. Cuyahoga County's under-18 population dipped 16 percent between 2000 and 2010. In fact, Ohio's drop in people under 18 was the third worst in the nation.[iii]

Ohio's manufacturing employment wasn't just hard hit during the seventies and eighties. At the beginning of the century Ohio had nearly a million manufacturing jobs. A little over a decade later just under 350,000 of those jobs remained.[iv] Manufacturing is the crucial piece of the economic puzzle in Ohio. And as the "recovery" begins to pick up steam, especially for automobile production and pipe production for energy exploration, manufacturing will continue to be a centerpiece of the state domestic product. However, it's unlikely job growth will ever return to the numbers seen in the nineties, much less the seventies. Also present is a significant skills gap, particularly in distressed urban communities, between what modern manufacturing employers are demanding and what job seekers possess. Lost manufacturing jobs are particularly troubling considering that average compensation in manufacturing for the year 2009 was nearly $68,000, while non-farm, non-manufacturing sectors averaged only about $42,000.[v]

As important as the decline in manufacturing jobs is for the state, there are other negative long-term indicators. According to the Brookings Institute, "Ohio underperformed the national average on employment in every industry from 2000 to 2008. Ohio's shrinking industries are declining faster than its growing industries are gaining ground."[vi] There have been bright spots, like the creation of the National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute in Youngstown or the Evergreen Cooperatives in Cleveland-a green worker co-op that's part of a highly innovative "Cleveland Model." The model partners community co-ops and anchor institutions (like universities and hospitals) with a large local footprint that could utilize services in their surrounding communities. Still, it's unclear how long these initiatives will take to have a measurable impact. And time is not on the side of the "Big Seven."

The term Big Seven denotes the absence of the capital city of Columbus. Unlike the others, Columbus has seemingly prospered while urban flight and deindustrialization ate away at her brethren. Columbus' diversified economy traditionally buffered it from the extremely cyclical nature of Ohio's manufacturing cities. And while sprawl devastated other cities in the state, Columbus annexed outlying areas, withholding the extension of water lines to areas that might resist incorporation into the city. Annexation disguises the low-density nature of the city. The urban core of Columbus has been hit hard by foreclosure and disinvestment. The near east side and south side are also experiencing disinvestment, yet, Columbus is drawing people from all over Ohio. It is the only one of the Big Eight with a growing population.

Franklin County, however, which Columbus dominates, has a child poverty rate of almost 27 percent.[vii] For several years child poverty in Ohio has eclipsed the national average; approximately one in four children live in poverty. [viii] Black child poverty in Ohio is three times higher than all other child poverty. The percentage of black children living in poverty in Ohio's Big Eight is much higher than the state average. In 2003, over 40 percent of black children in Youngstown, Toledo, Akron, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Canton lived below the poverty line.[ix] In 2011, that number was over 50 percent in Toledo and around 56 percent in Youngstown.

Ohio is now very likely to join Michigan as the only other state in the union to have lost population. While recent census estimates show a very slight uptick in growth, long-term trends are more than enough to reverse this. Overall population growth is trending in the wrong direction. Ohio's metropolitan areas are no closer to resolving long-standing conflicts between city and suburb; instead, shrinking counties are home to a polyglot of municipalities fighting over ever-decreasing economic pies. The federal government has long been an absentee voice in the realm of urban issues, so what is being done at the state level? States have toolboxes that can hinder or help cities. Ohio's poor record on fostering municipal cooperation, encouraging sprawl and green field development, as well as failing to invest in twenty first century transportation infrastructure, is more than discouraging-it's akin to promoting spatial suicide. Since Ohio's 2005 tax cut-that largely benefited top-earners-job growth in every sector has trailed the national average. From 2005 to 2009, Ohio eliminated its corporate income tax, instead establishing a "commercial activity tax" in 2010. Unfortunately corporations are multi-state enterprises and are likely to invest such tax breaks in places other than Ohio, which is apparently what happened. Since 2005, only three other states have worse job growth rates.[x]

Ohio's budget for 2014 and 2015 also features income tax cuts (mostly benefiting the wealthy, again) and an increase in the regressive sales tax. Tax cuts up to $250,000 for small business owners won't add up to much of a stimulus when most small business owners make under $30,000 a year. Estate taxes, the majority of which fund local government, are now gone. Distressed cities in Ohio will likely have to enact further reductions in services, which in turn will make them even less desirable places to live.

Ohio is in crisis mode, whether the state government realizes it or not. Seven out of Ohio's eight major cities are in various states of decline or even collapse. The economy is moribund on many levels. The decline of manufacturing employment is hurting working class families at a time when few opportunities for college graduates are driving more young people to the Sun Belt and elsewhere. As the Greater Ohio Policy Center points out, "Ohio's seven largest metro areas are home to 71 percent of its population, 76 percent of its jobs, and 80 percent of the states' gross domestic product." [xi] With accelerating blight and population loss, metropolitan fragmentation, and a disconnected state government more interested in restricting access to abortion than in increasing access to education and jobs for low-income households, Ohio faces a race to the bottom of states in terms of opportunity and quality of life.



Notes



[i] Lisa Robertson, "Big Ohio Cities Losing Population," Elyria Chronicle Telegram, May 24, 2013, http://chronicle.northcoastnow.com/2013/05/24/big-ohio-cities-losing-population/ (accessed August 2, 2013)

[ii] Sam Fullwood III, Race and Beyond: The Silent Decline (Center For American Progress, 2011) http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2011/02/22/9162/race-and-beyond-the-silent-decline/

[iii] Ken McCall and Lawrence Budd, "Ohio 3rd in Loss of Young People," Springfield News Sun, April 4, 2011, http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/news/local/ohio-3rd-in-nation-in-loss-of-young-people-1/nMqXS/ (accessed August 3, 2013)

[iv] G Scott Thomas, "Ohio Lost 346K Manufacturing Jobs in a Decade," Dayton Business Journal, May 26, 2011, http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2011/05/26/ohio-lost-345600-manufacturing-jobs.html

[v] National Association of Manufacturers, US Manufacturing Statistics - Manufacturing & Trade Data By State (Ohio), http://www.nam.org/~/media/9FB12626D4F64F9586A971C573E8AEE9.ashx

[vi] The Brookings Institute Metropolitan Program and the Greater Ohio Policy Center, Restoring Prosperity: Transforming Ohio's Communities for the Next Economy (2010), 3.

[vii] Rita Price, "Franklin County's Child Poverty Rate Hits 26.5 percent," The Columbus Dispatch, August 7, 2012, http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/public/2013/08/07/county-child-poverty-rate-rises.html (accessed August 12, 2013)

[viii] U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2011 Poverty and Median Income Estimates-States, 2011
Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates. http://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/statecounty/data/2011.html

[ix] John Bryant, Mason Grey, Erin Joyce, Karen Kahle, Eileen Cooper Read, and Peter Salib, Everybody's Child: Challenges and Opportunities for Black Children in Ohio (Children's Defense Fund-Ohio, 2003) 6.

http://www.aecf.org/upload/publicationfiles/ohio%20everybody's%20child%20essay.pdf

[x] Policy Matters Ohio, JobWatch: Ohio Job Growth Trails Nation Since 2005 Tax Overhaul (2013) http://www.policymattersohio.org/jobwatch05-apr2013

[xi] Lavea Brachman, Greater Ohio Policy Center, "New State and Federal Policy Agendas: Realizing the Potential of America's Legacy Cities and their Regions," in Rebuilding America's Legacy Cities: New Directions for the Industrial Heartland, ed. Allan Mallach (New York, New York: The American Assembly, 2012), 272.